Eye on Trends:  China and India
by: Mark Hukill, Senior Advisor, PTC and Member, PTC Advisory Council.

Some interesting statistics have emerged from Asia recently.  The first is the milestone reached in China at the start of 2007 with the report that China Mobile, Ltd. now has over 306 million mobile phone subscribers. That is more subscribers than the entire population of the United States, but still represents only a quarter of the population of China. 

Secondly, India Telecom, one of the largest telecom companies in the world, released a report in February stating that nearly 7 million new wireless and mobile subscribers were added during January 2007.  Wireless subscribers now total over 156 million.  While a very large number, this is still only about 15% of the population of India.

With just over 1 billion cell phones shipped to consumers in 2006, according to a study conducted by the International Data Corp., nearly half are going to China and India alone.  These two countries are on a pace to eventually have more mobile phone subscribers than the rest of the world combined.  And the use of those mobile phones includes an increasing use of text messaging, not voice calls, as is the case across all of Asia.  The increasing use of video also looms large in the next wave of applications.

The heavy concentration and penetration of mobile telephones and other devices as well as increasing access to broadband capacity highlights the economic dynamism of India and China. The era where both may come to dominate world economies could arrive much sooner than expected.  That is not as far-fetched as it may seem.  We have understood for years the close correlation between telecommunications development and overall economic development.

What is striking is that both India and China are predominately poor.  Poverty envelopes more than half the population of each for a total of more than one billion people.  Compare this to the US where 16 million people or only 5% of the population is considered at or below the severe poverty line defined as having an annual income of less than $9700 per year, a sum that would put most in China or India well above their poverty lines.

The case for development, and telecommunications development in particular therefore takes on renewed meaning to provide appropriate systems and applications, especially in terms of information and communication resources for the development of basic human needs such as food, health, shelter, sanitation and education.  There is also the very strong case for these countries to begin to quite radically re-shape (albeit in an evolutionary process over time) their regulatory and structural ownership regimes to extend themselves toward greater world integration.

Attention will necessarily shift over the next decade or two to a very focused interest on China and India in particular.   PTC is in a position to play a leading role in understanding the issues of enterprise and development in telecommunications in this arena. 

As the center of attention shifts to China and India, so must the viewpoint of PTC to remain relevant.  Nearly 50% of attendees at PTC'07 were from the US and a strong interest continues in international networking in the more developed parts of the Pacific hemisphere.  Nonetheless, PTC must also endeavor to put meaningful action behind its mission with a concerted effort to build lasting relationships and help shape meaningful development with a view in particular toward China and India.

PTC'07 also marked the very visible and appreciated sponsorship of organizations from both of these countries including Platinum sponsor VSNL International and Gold sponsors Asia Netcom, China Telecom and CPCNet. We hope to continue working with these organizations and more at PTC'08.

Most important is to be sure that the markets and development arenas, represented by India and China, become firmly fixed as partners in the locus of PTC as we also continue with interests across the entire Pacific hemisphere.

Stay tuned for more.  In the June issue of the PTC Member's Bulletin, Dr. Hui Pan, Editor, Telecom Asia, will present an article on developments in China.

The views expressed are those of the author only and do not necessarily represent PTC as an organization.  Comments?  Please send to mark@ptc.org